The UFC’s most active champion makes his first Octagon appearance of 2025, as Alex Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line against Magomed Ankalaev in the main event at UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNEWS/ESPN+/Disney+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+/Disney+).
Pereira, ESPN’s No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter, has beaten his last four opponents by knockout. Most recently, he scored a fourth-round TKO over Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307. Ankalaev, ESPN’s No. 2-ranked light heavyweight, enters the fight riding a 13-fight unbeaten streak dating back to September 2018.
In the co-main event, fan favorite Justin Gaethje takes on Rafael Fiziev in a rematch of their March 2023 fight, which Gaethje won by majority decision. Fiziev took this fight on short notice, after Gaethje’s original opponent, Dan Hooker, was forced to withdraw due to injury on Feb. 25.
Andreas Hale spoke to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Light heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Pereira wins: He must use his range and educated striking to find the damaging shots, like he did against Rountree. The key will be leg kicks. Jan Blachowicz damaged Ankalaev’s legs on both sides, and Blachowicz is not nearly as slick setting up those kicks as Pereira is. Despite being a skilled wrestler, Ankalaev has often failed to commit to wrestling, opting to stand and trade, which will put him right in line for Pereira’s leg kicks. If that happens, Ankalaev will be compromised by Round 3, if the fight lasts that long.
How Ankalaev wins: Don’t try to kickbox with Pereira in the center of the Octagon for 25 minutes. He could land something big to get the win, but that’s not ideal against a heavy hitter like Pereira. Ankalaev has to mix things up early in the fight and put Pereira against the fence. No one wants to do that against Pereira because of the chance of getting caught with a big shot while coming in, but if he can avoid Pereira’s power, he could put Pereira against the fence and make him work. Eventually, he will have to use single-leg takedowns to get Pereira on the mat.
X factor: Cage grappling. It will be up to Ankalaev to close the distance and put Pereira against the fence. If Ankalaev is successful, he has a chance to win. If not, he’ll be in a lot of trouble.
Prediction: Pereira to win by knockout.
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Ankalaev to win (-105). I am a huge fan of Pereira, and he has cemented himself as an MMA legend, but stylistically, Ankalaev has the skills to match him on the feet and will have a huge advantage if this fight goes to the ground. I’m taking the slight underdog. As long as Ankalaev can avoid the early leg kicks from Pereira, he has more ways to win, and even where Pereira might be better, it’s not by much.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Fiziev to win (-170). In their first fight, Gaethje won a close decision, but I’m not overly confident the same result will occur. Fiziev is the better striker, and it’s not even close. However, Gaethje’s striking volume might have gotten him the nod on the scorecards. Gaethje has a wrestling background but never uses it and he is coming off of a brutal KO loss in his last fight. Assuming this will be a three-round standup fight, give me Fiziev at the current odds.
Lightweight: Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Bahamondes to win (-125). This should be a fun striking battle. Turner is 1-3 in his last four fights and his last loss — a second-round KO against Renato Moicano at UFC 300 — was arguably his most disappointing. He now takes on a dangerous striker who is riding a two-fight knockout winning streak. I am confident this fight stays standing unless Turner tries to wrestle, as he has a good ground game. The odds say this is a coin flip of a fight, but, if this stays on the feet, Bahamondes will pick Turner apart throughout three rounds.
Middleweight: Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Petrosyan to win (-155). If Petrosyan can avoid the power and takedown attempts of Ferreira, he will win this fight. Petrosyan has good takedown defense and is a much better striker. He also rarely makes mistakes. On the other hand, Ferreira tends to get reckless. Take Petrosyan to bounce back and get in the win column.
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