2025 NFL free agency: Best, worst, most surprising moves

Ben SolakMar 12, 2025, 06:10 AM ET
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NFL free agency is pretty much finished! Well, actually, it doesn’t even begin until 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, but the legal tampering period is almost 48 hours old, which means most contracts are essentially finalized. It’s just a matter of dotted i’s and crossed t’s.

With most major dominoes already fallen, free agency classes have come into clarity and grades are being assigned. I wanted to hand out not grades, but superlatives — awards for individual moves and collective team efforts. Which teams panicked? Which pursued familiarity? Which spent madly? Which built a quarterback-proof juggernaut?

These are my 2025 free agency superlatives:

The Biggest Portent of Doom Award: The Colts sign QB Daniel Jones

On paper, this is a fine move. The Colts have a young quarterback in 22-year-old Anthony Richardson, for whom the lightbulb simply has not come on. Entering Year 3, Richardson has one last chance to keep his starting job — but the Colts need to hedge their bets.

In Daniel Jones, who is 27, they get a still-young quarterback with plenty of starting experience. Out of New York, where expectations were towering for the presumed heir to Eli Manning, he might be able to play a little more free and loose — and in a better offensive environment than the Giants ever afforded him. On a one-year, $14 million deal, Jones is clearly betting that he’ll get some action in place of Richardson — because of Richardson’s poor play, an injury or a training camp battle — and play well enough to cash in during the 2026 offseason.

So again, on paper, square deal. The Colts can give Richardson another chance at putting it all together and get the first crack at post-Giants Jones. Two bets instead of one at the quarterback position is good business for a team in need of a starter.

In context … c’mon. It’s a quarterback battle between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. Both general manager Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen endured hot seats this offseason and need success in 2025 to hold on to their jobs. But how much success can a team draw from a QB room of Richardson and Jones when it doesn’t have a dominant WR1 and when two starting offensive linemen just left in free agency? Sure, the ceiling on Richardson is high enough to see a glimmer of hope, but that’s what the Colts have been hanging their hat on for two years. How likely is Richardson to hit that ceiling? And how likely is Jones to have a 2025 season at the level of, say, Sam Darnold‘s 2024? The Colts are making some long, long bets at the position.

For the last time, yes, it’s objectively a wise move to get Jones in the building to compete with Richardson. But the very fact that it is a wise move to add Jones highlights how dire of a situation the Colts franchise is in. If snagging Jones from the Vikings is a big sigh of relief, then your franchise is in a bad way. What happens next? Jones goes 4-4 as a starter in the back half of the season and the Colts are in the same position again in 2026, trying desperately to sign another low-end QB1 in free agency to save jobs for another year?

Even if this move is a wise one, it still tells me storm clouds are gathering on the horizon in Indianapolis.

The Annual ‘Howie Szn’ Award: The Eagles trade QB Kenny Pickett to the Browns

There isn’t a general manager in the league with half as fervent a cult following as the Eagles’ Howie Roseman. The mastermind behind two Super Bowl champions is known for overinvesting in the quarterback position, employing more talented offensive and defensive linemen than any other team and always fleecing opposing front offices in trades.

As such, every year, there’s at least one Eagles move — a signing, a trade, whatever — that has the entire Philadelphia fan base cheering its GM’s name. This offseason, that move is the trading of Kenny Pickett. The Eagles, in classic Howie fashion, traded for Pickett last offseason solely for his status as an ex-first-round quarterback. After one season of unspectacular QB2 play, they’ve shipped Pickett away to Cleveland, a team grasping at quarterback straws for the 2025 season.

The trade return (a fifth-rounder and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson) is about as unremarkable as what Roseman originally sent to Pittsburgh for Pickett (a third-rounder and two seventh-rounders for Pickett and a fourth-rounder). That isn’t the point, though. The point is Roseman continues to cycle through QB2 options even with a Super Bowl-winning QB1 in hand. He continues to wheel and deal for picks in a never-ending string of small but likely plus-expected value moves.

That’s what makes this a classic Howie move. Masterful gambit.

The Panic Award: Panthers sign DT Tershawn Wharton

The biggest fish on the defensive tackle market was ex-Eagle Milton Williams. The counting stats for Williams weren’t inspiring — five sacks and 10 QB hits — but his film was excellent, and the impact of his disruption was clear despite his rotational role. Jalen Carter drew a fair share of double-teams alongside him, but among tackles with at least 100 pass-rush snaps last season, Williams’ pressure rate of 12.5% ranked fourth (per NFL Next Gen Stats). That’s some serious pass-rush juice worth investing in.

The Panthers were in on Williams but failed to get it across the finish line. Instead, the Patriots dropped a four-year, $104 million deal on his doorstep, making him the league’s third-highest-paid defensive tackle. But Carolina still wanted to invest in the position, and did so with a three-year, $51 million deal for the ex-Chief Tershawn Wharton.

In some ways, Wharton looks like a fine consolation prize to Williams. Like Williams, he broke out with a career-best 6.5 sacks in 2024. Like Williams, he benefited from rushing next to an elite tackle in Chris Jones. And as an undrafted free agent who had to earn his way into a starting role, it’s understandable that Wharton’s just breaking out now and that his best football is ahead of him.

But the comparison doesn’t really pass muster. Yes, Wharton’s sack numbers were better, but he had 140 more pass-rush snaps than Williams, and his pressure rate of 8.2% was just above league average. Williams also just hit free agency; Wharton was available last season and signed a one-year, $2.75 million deal, which means his new market is largely the product of his “breakout” season.

Wharton spent most pass-rush downs as the pocket-pushing nose tackle whose job it was to corral quarterbacks trying to escape upfield after the other pass rushers turned up the heat — and he did that job well. But the Panthers, who also signed nose tackle Bobby Brown III to a three-year deal, clearly want Wharton to win as a pass rusher next to star defensive tackle Derrick Brown.

I’m not convinced Wharton has that juice. Sure, he flashes power as a rusher, and in more of a one-gapping role he could demonstrate a level of pass-rush prowess yet untapped. But this is a common error in the free agent cycle: missing on the real prize and accordingly overpaying for the next-best option to avoid coming away with nothing. The Panthers had money already set aside for a defensive tackle, and when they missed on Williams, they spent it anyway.

The Good for Content Award: The Seahawks trade WR DK Metcalf to the Steelers

DK Metcalf, who was dealt for a second-round pick and then signed to a $150 million extension, is a good but frustrating player. His combination of size and speed can be both unrecoverable and untackleable, but his route tree is limited, his contested catch ability is highly disappointing for a player his size and his adherence to strict route landmarks and spacing is highly questionable.

George Pickens is a good but frustrating player. His combination of size and strength can be both unrecoverable and untackleable, but his sideline awareness is notoriously haphazard, his on-field demeanor creates rifts in the locker room and his adherence to strict route landmarks and spacing is highly questionable.

Putting these two receivers on the same team? Just marvelous stuff. The peaks are going to be so, so high — two of the biggest-play receivers in all of football, liable to score on any route from any part of the field — and the valleys are going to be so, so low. What a roller-coaster ride this will be — and we don’t even know who will be throwing them the football in Pittsburgh! Keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle at all times, folks.

The Friendship Award: The Commanders

In just one year at the helm, general manager Adam Peters took the Commanders from league laughingstock to NFC Championship Game. He and coach Dan Quinn executed that turnaround by relying heavily on familiarity: In their first offseason together, they added defensive linemen Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr. and Clelin Ferrell, linebacker Bobby Wagner and center Tyler Biadasz, all of whom had spent time with either Quinn’s or Peters’ old teams.

Why fix what isn’t broke? In Year 2, the Commanders have re-signed Wagner, tight ends Zach Ertz and John Bates, punter Tress Way and kicker Zane Gonzalez. Ertz and Wagner especially stand out, as they were signed to one-year stop-gap deals last season — veterans in the twilight of their careers who could lead and set the culture for a young team. But both outperformed expectations and are running it back for one last postseason run into the sunset (or maybe two, or three).

Other than the re-signings, the Commanders’ major moves were the trade for wideout Deebo Samuel Sr. with the 49ers, Peters’ previous organization, and the free agent acquisition of Javon Kinlaw, the ex-Jets defensive tackle who was initially drafted by … the 49ers. Kinlaw’s deal — $45 million over three years — was particularly jaw-dropping, even in an offseason cycle that has spent heavily on defensive tackles. It’s hard to imagine anyone giving Kinlaw $15 million per year, save for a member of the front office that initially believed and invested in him. Only former Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil, acquired in another trade, comes to Washington without a preexisting connection with either the coaching staff or the front office. (And safety Will Harris, who got signed as I was writing this Tuesday, ruining my bit.)

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None of these moves are bad in a vacuum. The Commanders have an incredible championship window with quarterback Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract, but this was not a loaded free agent class, and they were wise not to spend solely to feel like they were maximizing their window. They signed several older players, but only Kinlaw and Bates are signed beyond the 2026 season. This is a measured investment in veterans who could provide immediate impact so long as they continue to age well.

After all, what fun is a Super Bowl if you don’t get to win it with your pals?

This is being awarded for the small move that suddenly will become a big deal during the season. Ifeatu Melifonwu, who landed a one-year deal, is a talented athlete who switched from cornerback to safety during his career. He was never a full-time starter with the Lions, as he was stuck behind a loaded safety room and has dealt with major injuries. But a healthy Melifonwu should start for the Dolphins, where defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver needs a big box safety to blitz and play over tight ends.

Jevon Holland, who signed with the Giants, left big shoes to fill, and it’s unlikely — but not impossible — that Melifonwu can do it on his own. If he can give them even 80% of what Holland did, he’s suddenly a starting-caliber safety in his physical prime.

The 1,000th Annual Classic Overpay Award: The Bears sign DE Dayo Odeyingbo

This is being awarded for the big move that suddenly will become a small deal during the season, which happens with a lot of free agent signings. The Bears had one big plan this offseason: Fix the trenches. They traded for guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, gave Drew Dalman one of the league’s biggest center contracts and signed both Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett along the defensive line. Time to get bigger and better.

This is an admirable approach, but tunnel vision is often a detriment in March, and that’s what happened here. Odeyingbo, who got a three-year, $48 million contract, is an ascending player in the sense that he put the pieces together over the past two seasons with the Colts — he had 17 QB hits in both 2023 and 2024 — and could have a larger net impact in a role that doesn’t force him to split time. But he is an average DE2 playing opposite an average DE1 in Montez Sweat. The likelihood that he suddenly rises to a pass-rushing level that warrants $16 million per year is pretty low.

Of course, that’s the bet teams have to make in free agency: on upside, on ascension in a new environment. It’s why most big free agent contracts don’t work. But the Bears’ focus on filling gaps along their lines led to a flurry of moves, and all of them could have qualified here. Dalman probably isn’t worth all that money; Jarrett, at this stage in his career, probably isn’t worth all that money. The new-look lines in Chicago are a March win for sure, but March wins evaporate by September, when on-field play either validates or exposes offseason hype trains.

The QB-Proof Award: The Vikings

I think the Vikings are the winners of the free agent period. They double-dipped at defensive tackle with Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, and they need just one of the two aging interior pass rushers to hit for them at one of the lone positions of weakness on the defense last season. Star corner Byron Murphy Jr. returns to the outside, and veteran running back Aaron Jones returns on offense.

Cover up the quarterback position, and the Vikings have built one of the league’s most competitive rosters. Reveal that J.J. McCarthy is the current starting QB, and everything makes total sense. The Vikings got a first look at how their team would support an inconsistent, imperfect quarterback last season with Sam Darnold at the helm and have used that trial run to iron out the remaining wrinkles. Right guard was a big problem in pass protection, so they spent big money on ex-Colt Will Fries (five years, $88 million). Center Garrett Bradbury also often struggled when dealing with power one-on-one, so another ex-Colt in Ryan Kelly (two years, $18 million) was signed to provide competition.

There is no team better suited to incubate a first-year passer than the Vikings. They have an excellent, opportunistic defense that can create short fields. They have an excellent playcaller in Kevin O’Connell, who runs a QB-friendly system. They have an elite pass catcher in Justin Jefferson, along with excellent complementary pass catchers T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison. And now, they have an improved offensive line and likely improved running game as a result. If McCarthy is even an average first-year starting quarterback, the Vikings should win plenty of games.

Of course, the Vikings might decide to hedge their quarterback bets. McCarthy was QB5 in last year’s draft and is coming off a major knee injury, after all. But even if they sign a veteran such as Aaron Rodgers, the theory will be the same: that a quarterback can’t help but shine on a team like this.

The Name That Best Matches the Result of His Free Agency Award: Packers G Aaron Banks

Because … because the Packers gave him $77 million. To Aaron Banks. Do you get it?

Honorable mention: Offensive tackle Dan Moore Jr., who got $82 million from the Titans. Perhaps a little richer than many expected? Perhaps a little greater than projected? Perhaps a little more than–

The ‘It’s one banana, Michael, what could it cost — $10?’ Award: The Patriots

When teams have a lot of money, free agency is very easy. Want to sign ascending pass rusher Milton Williams? Make him the third-highest-paid defensive tackle in the league. Need a CB2 to run opposite Christian Gonzalez? Throw $20 million Carlton Davis‘ way. The Titans just cut edge rusher Harold Landry, who used to play for new Patriots coach Mike Vrabel? Let’s get the band back together!

The Patriots did exactly that which bad teams with tons of money always do in free agency: They spent, and spent, and spent some more. All in all, they have agreed to pay $292.6 million over the course of nine deals signed for the next few seasons. Big free agent bags can take a team from bad to average pretty quickly. (New Englanders will remember the unprecedented $159.6 million in guaranteed money the team handed out in the 2021 offseason, which helped the team go 10-7 in the ensuing season.)

But the next few leaps are dependent on the quarterback and the success of early draft picks spent on potential stars. In Drake Maye, the Patriots believe they have the former handled — for real this time, no Mac Jones trickery. The latter is yet to come in the 2025 draft and beyond.

The Patriots have plugged plenty of holes on their roster and still have the cash necessary to add a guard or another wide receiver. And if the Bengals finally start to cave on Tee Higgins‘ trade market, they could send some picks to Cincy for him, too.

After all, it’s just a star receiver, Michael. What could it cost?

The Universally Panned Move Award: The Seahawks trade QB Geno Smith to the Raiders

Every year, there is one big, franchise-altering move made that gets near-universal negative coverage. Think the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. just over a month after signing Kirk Cousins to a huge deal — the initial shock value, the total confusion. Sure, there was a way to talk yourself into the move a day later, and by the end of the 2024 season, the move made far more sense. But at the time, it caught almost nothing but heat.

The early contender for the 2025 most generally disliked move is the Seahawks’ plan at quarterback. Seattle sent Geno Smith to the Raiders for a 2025 third-round pick — an absolute pittance for a veteran starting QB! — as the extension discussion frayed over time between the player and the team. And to replace Smith, Seattle signed Sam Darnold to a three-year, $100.5 million deal.

If you want to squint your eyes and see the upside, you can. Darnold is seven years younger than Smith, will certainly have a less costly contract than Smith (who has yet to sign an extension with the Raiders but will likely clear Darnold’s per-year average by at least $10 million) and might be actually good. Darnold’s 2024 season with the Vikings ended in a blaze of ignominy with blowout losses to the Lions and Rams, but he largely played well. Big arm, some good throws on the move and plenty of accurate passes. There’s something there for sure. Why wouldn’t a team seemingly stuck in mediocrity with Smith at the helm not take the pick via trade, go with the cheaper quarterback and gamble on Darnold’s upside? The two most likely outcomes are a big step forward from the Smith era into serious playoff contention or a big step back into a clear rebuild.

The problem is that squinting perspective misses the forest for the trees. It is extremely unlikely Darnold performs as good or better in Seattle than he did in Minnesota, because Seattle’s offensive nucleus is dreadful compared to Miinnesota’s unit. Seattle’s offensive line was one of the worst in the league last season, as Smith was pressured within 2.5 seconds on 18.8% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate by NFL Next Gen Stats’ data. And the pass-catching group of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t hold a candle to that of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Darnold won’t even get that same trio Smith had; Metcalf is a Steeler now, and Lockett has been released.

Fowler: Geno Smith wanted to go to a team that would pay him long-term

Jeremy Fowler explains why the Raiders traded for Geno Smith and why a long-term deal is on the horizon.

The offensive depth charts don’t even capture the full picture. The Vikings’ defense (fourth by success rate and second by EPA per play in the regular season) regularly gave Darnold better field position and score differentials than Seattle’s gave Smith, which makes passing easier. Darnold played in a play-action-heavy offense under Kevin O’Connell, which makes passing easier than the straight dropback offense Smith was forced to captain under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb (who has since been fired).

The likelihood that Darnold, who finally showed franchise quarterback potential in an ideal system, outperforms Smith, who was a consistent producer for three years in Seattle despite a carousel of offensive coordinators and suboptimal pass protection, is extremely small. The high-tail outcome — that Darnold vaults the Seahawks into a level of playoff contention that Smith never could — feels accordingly unlikely. The Seahawks are trying to bill this quarterback change as a course correction for a contender, but it simply is not that. They would have kept Metcalf were that the case; they would have been aggressive in the first few days of free agency were that the case. Instead, they have signed Darnold, retained some players in-house and done almost nothing else.

That is why this move is universally panned. It only makes sense if an observer is willing to entertain the likelihood that Darnold is substantially better than Smith, and every observer — national NFL analyst, Seahawks fan and anyone in between — has an abundance of evidence that he is not. Could they be roughly equal in caliber? Possibly. But to get only a third-round pick and $10 million per year in cap space to make that bet feels like terrible odds.

Universally panned moves occasionally work … that’s the NFL for you. It’s a chaotic, volatile beast. Every career tilts on a razor’s edge. But that’s why we grade moves based on the information we have at the time, not on the eventual outcome, when all the dust finally settles. And this move is simply poor team-building.

The Commitment to the Bit Award: The Saints

“This will be the year the Saints don’t spend any money,” they told me! “This is finally the year the Saints will take their lumps.”

But general manager Mickey Loomis never says die. The Saints signed a couple of internal extensions — edge rusher Chase Young and tight end Juwan Johnson — in an understandable and shrewd effort to keep void-year money stuck in future years. Were Young or Johnson to leave in free agency, the void money on those contracts would accelerate onto the 2025 cap. With deals in place, the void money instead stays in future years, and they retain good young players. That’s fine business.

But then the Saints signed free agent safety Justin Reid to a three-year, $37.5 million deal. That is decisively not stopping the spending and taking your salary cap medicine. It is spending 2025, 2026 and 2027 money — money the Saints do not have — in an effort to field a more competitive roster in the short term. We don’t have full details on the structure of Reid’s deal yet, but it will almost certainly be backloaded into 2027 and even borrow from 2028 and beyond. Why do this, when contention is surely not in the immediate future? Why do this, when cap health is circling the drain? I simply cannot tell you.

Never learn your lessons, kids. There’s always money in the banana stand. (Great article for “Arrested Development” references.)

This article was originally published by a www.espn.com . Read the Original article here. .