Most cyclones hit hard and fast, but Alfred’s approach has been coloured by slow, suspenseful movement.
Here’s how the cyclone and the emergency response unfolded.
Saturday, February 22
Our timeline starts a fortnight ago, on February 22, when a tropical low began swirling 730 kilometres north-east of Cairns.
At this stage, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned the system would likely travel south, but it was too early to accurately forecast.
There was also no clear threat, but the system had found itself on officials’ radars.
Friday, February 28
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from February 28. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
Perhaps setting the tone for its journey as a whole, Cyclone Alfred was monitored for almost a week before it first prompted a warning.
By this point, it had made its way down the coast of Queensland and was more than 800 kilometres offshore.
Despite the distance, locales from Townsville to K’gari were feeling the strong winds it whipped up.
Campers on K’gari were advised to be prepared to leave as the gusts threatened to produce 4-5 metre swells and abnormally high tides.
Cyclone Alfred is already creating a powerful swell, much to the delight of surfers off the Bundaberg coast. (ABC News: Johanna Marie)
At that stage, the latest modelling suggested Alfred would likely stay offshore.
But as we now know, the weather system had other plans.
Sunday, March 2
A week after the system first formed, modelling indicated Alfred would turn toward the coastline.
At a press conference, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli said the state had entered a “precautionary and preparation phase”.
A flood watch was put in place from the Mary River to the southern border and beyond, but the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) held back from issuing a tropical cyclone warning.
Monday, March 3
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 3. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
By Monday, the BOM had hashed out more details on Alfred’s path.
It would likely become the first tropical cyclone system to cross the stretch of coastline near the border between Queensland and New South Wales in more than 50 years.
Available modelling suggested the cyclone was likely to make landfall late on Thursday or Friday, roughly between the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane, as a category two system.
With the cyclone’s western approach, south-east Queensland’s island and bay communities, as well as those in low-lying areas on the Sunshine Coast, were asked to consider whether to leave.
The bureau warned the southern flank of the system would cause the greatest impact, with destructive winds and heavy rainfall lashing areas in its path.
Shipping operations off Mooloolaba were suspended and three cruise ships off the coast prepared to port as soon as possible.
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Tuesday, March 4
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 4. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
Modelling suggested the rain would get worse from Thursday to Saturday.
A flood watch remained in place for areas from the Mary River, the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, the Brisbane River catchment and Logan and Albert River catchments.
Gold Coast Acting Mayor Donna Gates warned residents to prepare to evacuate as modelling suggested the region could experience its worst weather event in 70 years.
Sporting events, including the WPGA Championship and the AFL season opener, were called off or postponed.
By the afternoon, the first official cyclone warning had been issued for Queensland and New South Wales.
Wednesday, March 5
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 5. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
On Wednesday morning, it appeared likely the cyclone could cross the coast at high tide on Thursday night.
Daily rainfall totals were forecast to reach up to 400 millimetres in some areas.
Queensland officials made the call to close more than 500 schools from Thursday and suspend public transport from Wednesday night.
More than 100 schools in northern New South Wales would be closed.
Elective surgeries scheduled for Thursday and Friday were cancelled.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the Australian Defence Force had been engaged.
The federal government confirmed it had pre-positioned heavy-lifting helicopters from the National Aerial Firefighting Fleet to support the New South Wales and Queensland governments.
Residents in Brisbane’s bayside areas were told to prepare to evacuate.
Massive waves were spotted on the Gold Coast on Tuesday. (Supplied: Dyhann Melling )
By Wednesday evening, forecasts of Alfred’s landfall had been adjusted to early Friday morning.
The BOM advised Alfred’s western edge had already begun impacting the east coast.
With the cyclone moving over warm waters, forecasters were not able to rule out the possibility Alfred would become a category three system.
Some businesses began closing as staff prepared for the weather to take a turn.
Strong winds battered island communities, with residents on Lord Howe Island describing the gusts as “Herculean” and “absolutely deafening”.
Thursday, March 6
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 6. (Supplied: BOM)
The system’s erratic movement had pushed back its forecast landfall again and it was now tipped to cross the coast during the early hours of Saturday morning.
A warning issued by the BOM early on Thursday told residents to prepare for destructive winds, a dangerous storm tide, heavy rainfall and flooding.
Modelling showed almost 20,000 properties in Brisbane and 6,000 on the Gold Coast were at risk of a storm surge or flooding.
Sandbag collection locations were abuzz with activity as the city prepared to batten down the hatches.
Sand collection points were hives of activity as Brisbane prepared for Alfred’s landfall. (ABC News: Mary Lloyd)
Mr Albanese warned Alfred’s extended time at sea was “not all good news” because the then-category two system could intensify over warm waters.
Evacuation centres were set up ahead of the cyclone’s landfall.
Brisbane Airport remained open but most flights were cancelled past 3pm.
Supermarkets across the south-east closed or reduced their hours.
Gold Coast local disaster coordinator Mark Ryan warned residents to begin bunkering down from Thursday evening.
Strong winds downed this tree in Ballina, NSW. (ABC News: Jak Rowland)
With winds expected to pick up at about 4am on Friday, residents on the Southern Moreton Bay Islands and Stradbroke Island were told to take shelter.
Late on Thursday, the BOM indicated Alfred had stalled again, briefly doubling back on its expected path.
A 7pm AEST update issued by the BOM showed the cyclone sitting about 225 kilometres offshore from Brisbane. At 11pm, it was 240 kilometres away.
Friday, March 7
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 7. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
Brisbane residents woke to another day of blue skies as the city waited with bated breath for Alfred’s approach.
Further south, winds and heavy rain had already begun battering buildings, taking down trees and powerlines on the Gold Coast and in northern New South Wales.
An early update from the NSW State Emergency Service said thousands were already under prepare-to-evacuate orders, which could be extended as forecasts changed.
It had already issued nearly 100 warnings, from watch and acts to emergency alerts.
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At a press conference, NSW Deputy Premier Prue Car said more than 300 schools in the region had been closed.
Mr Crisafulli gave an update in the afternoon, when more than 55,000 homes in Queensland and 35,000 in New South Wales were experiencing blackouts. He said restoring power was an urgent priority.
By the late evening, the bureau expected Alfred to pass over the Moreton Bay Islands at about 4am.
But modelling was changing from hour to hour.
Coastal and bayside areas in Brisbane and the Gold Coast had recorded winds gusting more than 100 kilometres per hour in some places, as well as heavy rain.
The Brisbane City Council advised residents to take shelter at about 11pm as the outer reaches of the cyclone began to hit.
Saturday, March 8
At 12am AEST, Alfred was downgraded to a category one system.
But the BOM warned south-east Queensland and northern NSW were not out of the woods yet.
Updated forecasting predicted the eye of the cyclone would cross over the mainland at about 6-7am.
As gale-force winds were clocked in Brisbane City, more than 200,000 residents were recorded as being without power in south-east Queensland at 2am.
Mr Crisafulli confirmed generators had been deployed to keep essential services up and running, with restoration efforts planned to begin as soon as conditions would allow.
Flooding alerts were issued across the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales and many residents were told to prepare to evacuate.
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At about 5am, the BOM told ABC News Breakfast that the system was slowing down and losing momentum over the water.
Alfred spent the day on Brisbane’s doorstep.
But before it ever made landfall, the system was downgraded to a tropical low.
Now, the main concerns were the risk of flooding caused by sustained rainfall, and the restoration of power.
Have you been affected by Cyclone Alfred? We want to hear your story
This article was originally published by a www.abc.net.au . Read the Original article here. .