Bold predictions for NFL free agency, plus Trey Hendrickson landing spots, ranking worst free agents ever

Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! 

I hope everyone has a peaceful day, because this is it: This is the calm before the storm in the NFL. 

Starting next week, NFL free agency will be kicking off, and things will be getting wild. Although free agency doesn’t technically start until Wednesday (March 12), the legal tampering period starts Monday (March 10) at noon ET, and that’s when the nonstop craziness will likely start. 

We’ll be going all-in on free agency with some bold predictions, and we’ll also be taking a look at some possible landing spots for Trey Hendrickson, who has been granted permission by the Bengals to seek a trade. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. 

1. Bold predictions for free agency: Aaron Rodgers lands in AFC West

We’ve been making predictions all week about what’s going to happen in free agency, but we haven’t made any BOLD predictions, which is going to change right now, because that’s what we’re going to do today. 

Garrett Podell came up with several bold predictions for free agency, and we’re going to check out three of those below. 

• Aaron Rodgers signs with Raiders. “After the New York Giants whiffed on trading for Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers emerged as a natural fallback option. He’s reached out to the Giants at least twice, and he already has a house in the area after playing for the Jets. However, the Las Vegas Raiders, who entered the offseason with the second-most cap space in the entire NFL, will emerge to sign Rodgers. … Tom Brady and Pete Carroll lure Rodgers out west to Vegas, something Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby has been pushing for lately.“
• Packers trade for DK Metcalf. “The 27-year-old has one year remaining on his three-year, $72 million extension, and he would also like a new deal. Metcalf also wants to play for a contender, and the Green Bay Packers can provide that as well after making the postseason two years in a row with the NFL’s youngest roster.”
• Browns DON’T trade Myles Garrett. “On paper, it would make sense for the Browns to shop around the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year for a stockpile of draft picks. … Trading Garrett would cause the Browns to absorb $36.2 million in dead money, which would lose them $16.5 million of their 2025 cap space. In the NFL, teams have more power than players when it comes to trade demands, and Cleveland does just that to keep Garrett around in 2025.”

Garrett has a few more bold predictions, and you can check those out here. 

2. AFC matchmaker: One free agent who makes sense for each AFC team

After playing matchmaker in the NFC on Thursday, we’re moving on to the AFC. 

Tyler Sullivan went through every team in the AFC and came up with one free agent who they should sign, so let’s take a look at a few of the names on his list. 

• Jets: QB Justin Fields. “The Jets are entering a new era with recently hired head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey. While there is a clear need for a franchise quarterback, they are not in the best position to draft one at No. 7 overall. On the flip side, it wouldn’t make much sense for them to break the bank for old friend Sam Darnold in free agency, either. Signing Fields at a cheaper rate seems to be the most shrewd approach to their quarterback situation.”
• Patriots: OT Ronnie Stanley. “The Patriots were fortunate to find their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, and now it’s time to create a wall in front of him after he was sacked 34 times in 13 games last season. Stanley would come in and immediately provide elite protection at left tackle after allowing just two sacks in 2024.”
• Bills: OLB Khalil Mack. “The Bills currently don’t have a lot of wiggle room from a cap perspective as they are roughly $8.6 million over the cap. Even when they get their books in order, they might not be able to go big-game hunting in free agency. However, that may not preclude them from bringing in a notable name like Khalil Mack. The 34-year-old pass rusher isn’t at the peak of his powers at this stage of his career, but he’s still more than capable of making an impact off the edge. … Mack also has ties to the area after playing his college ball at the University of Buffalo, so this could be a homecoming of sorts as he links up with a Super Bowl contender.”

Sullivan made one free agent suggestion for all 16 AFC teams, and if you want to see his full list, all you have to do is click here.

3. Trey Hendrickson requests a trade: Full details and possible landing spots for the Bengals star

At this point, it’s starting to feel like we’re getting a new trade request EVERY DAY in the NFL, and on Thursday, that request came from Trey Hendrickson, who was given permission to seek a trade by the Bengals. 

Here’s what you need to know:

• Why Hendrickson wants out. The Bengals star wants a new contract. Hendrickson is headed into the final year of a deal that will pay him just $15.8 million in 2025. After leading the NFL in sacks last season with 17.5, Hendrickson wants (and deserves) a substantial raise. Last month, Hendrickson said he wanted the Bengals to give him a raise or trade him, and it appears the Bengals have chosen the second option. Maxx Crosby reset the pass-rushing market this week with a new deal that pays him $35.5 million per year, and there’s a good chance Hendrickson’s asking price shot up after seeing that deal. 

We’ve got the full story on Hendrickson’s trade request here. 

The fact Hendrickson only has one year left on his contract makes him slightly more difficult to trade, because not only does a new team have to give up draft picks to land him, but they also have to give him a new contract that will likely be worth well north of $30 million per year. 

So, where might Hendrickson end up? Glad you asked. Cody Benjamin came up with a few landing spots. 

• Commanders. “The Commanders just worked the phone lines to land Deebo Samuel, but they only surrendered a fifth-round pick to bolster their wide receiver room. They could still use a bona fide pass rusher for Dan Quinn’s defense, and they’re also still flush with cap space, projected to enter free agency with more than $60 million at their disposal.”
• Bears. “New Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen also has a history with Hendrickson, serving the same role with the Saints when the pass rusher made a name for himself in New Orleans.”
• Packers. “After dealing Preston Smith during the 2024 season, the Packers could use a proven counterpart for Rashan Gary and the young Lukas Van Ness off the edge. They’ve also got plenty of money to spend, with more than $46 million in projected 2025 cap space.”

Cody came up with five total landing spots, and you can check out his full list here. 

4. Jaguars turn their roster upside down: Details on Jacksonville’s wild day

The award for craziest day of the offseason so far definitely goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who turned their roster upside down Thursday. Not only did they cut four different players, but they also traded a receiver to a division rival and their starting center retired. 

Let’s recap the craziness in Jacksonville: 

• Several key players get cut. The Jaguars said goodbye to tight end Evan Engram, wide receiver Josh Reynolds, cornerback Ronald Darby and returner Devin Duvernay. The most surprising move was the team’s decision to cut Engram, who was voted to the Pro Bowl in 2023 after leading all NFL tight ends with 114 receptions. The four moves will free up $12.87 million in salary cap space for Jacksonville, and that number could jump even higher if Engram is designated as a post-June 1 cut. 
• Christian Kirk traded to Texans. It’s not often you see a team trade a player to a division rival, but the Jaguars did exactly that Thursday when they decided to ship Kirk off to Houston in exchange for a 2026 seventh-round pick. (And no, you didn’t read that wrong: That’s a 2026 PICK, not 2025.) There was some speculation that the Jags wanted to trade Kirk before the trade deadline back in October, but that didn’t happen because he broke his collarbone. This move makes financial sense for the Jags, who will free up $10.5 million in cap space with the trade. You can read more about the trade here. 
• Mitch Morse retires. The Jaguars starting center is calling it quits after 10 seasons in the NFL. Morse officially made the announcement Thursday morning. Morse entered the NFL in 2015 when the Chiefs selected him with a second-round pick in the NFL Draft. He spent four seasons in Kansas City before moving on to Buffalo in 2019. After five years with the Bills, Morse signed with the Jags in 2024 and ended up starting all 17 games for Jacksonville during his lone year with the team. 

The Jags now have roughly $60 million in cap space, which means they’re now in a spot where they could make a splash in free agency next week.  

5. Ranking the worst free agent signings of all-time

There have been some bad free agent signings throughout NFL history. Our own Bryan DeArdo ranked the 10 worst signings ever, and we’re going to take a look at the top three on his list: 

1. Washington signs Albert Haynesworth (2009). “Washington signed the two-time All-Pro to a seven-year, $100 million contract, but quickly regretted that decision. During his first year in Washington, Haynesworth publicly questioned the coaching staff while failing to produce up to expectations. Conflicts between Haynesworth and the coaching staff continued in 2010, along with his lack of production. Haynesworth was traded to the Patriots in 2011.”

2. Falcons sign Kirk Cousins (2024). “Prior to drafting Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons’ acquisition of Cousins made sense. Atlanta was 7-10 each of the previous three seasons and appeared to be a quarterback away from making a serious run at the NFC South division title. … But Cousins immediately struggled in Atlanta, and he never really recovered. He threw a league-high 16 interceptions and was ultimately benched in favor of Penix after 14 games. While the Falcons have already moved on to Penix, they need to figure out what to do with Cousins, who is currently slated to return to the team as an insanely overpaid backup.”

3. Giants sign Kenny Golladay (2021). “This is one of the worst free agent acquisitions of all-time for good reason. Golladay was a Pro Bowler with the Lions in 2019, was injured most of the 2020 season, then signed a four-year, $72 million deal with the Giants in 2021. He caught just 43 passes in two seasons with the Giants, who released him last offseason.”

DeArdo ranked the 10 worst signings of all-time, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here. 

6. Extra points: Browns drama continues with Myles Garrett

It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Browns owner turns down meeting with Myles Garrett. The Browns star recently requested a meeting with Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam to talk about Garrett’s trade request, but that won’t be happening. According to NFL Media, Haslam turned down the request. Garrett wants out of Cleveland and the fact that the owner isn’t even willing to talk to him probably isn’t going to help things. You can read more about the Haslam situation here. 
• Bills starter signs extension. Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard won’t be leaving Buffalo any time soon. The 25-year-old has agreed to a four-year, $50 million extension with the team. Bernard has started in 31 games for the Bills since joining the team as a third-round pick in 2022. Bernard was headed into the final year of his rookie deal before signing the extension. You can get the full details of his new contract here. 
• Giants finally have a QB under contract. Going into this week, the Giants didn’t have a single quarterback under contract for the 2025 season, but that changed Thursday after Tommy DeVito signed a one-year deal to stay with the team. We’ve got the full story on DeVito’s signing here. 
• 49ers expected to cut two-time Pro Bowler. It looks like Javon Hargrave’s time in San Francisco is going to be ending after just one season. According to ESPN, Hargrave has been informed that he’s going to be released on the first day of the league year (March 12). The 49ers will likely try to trade him before then, but if that doesn’t happen, he’ll be cut. We came up with some possible landing spots for Hargrave, and you can check those out here. 
• Bobby Wagner returning to Washington. The Commanders starting linebacker will not be hitting free agency after agreeing to a one-year deal to stay with the team. Wagner’s contract is worth up to $9.5 million and includes $8 million in guarantees. The 34-year-old is going into his 14th NFL season, but his age didn’t seem to slow him down during a 2024 season during which he led the Commanders in tackles. You can read more about Wagner’s return here.